Your FH guide to…the Labour Conference

22.09.2011

What does Miliband need to do?

Above all, he needs to persuade the country that his Labour Party can make a credible next Government, and that he would be a convincing Prime Minister – latest Party rumours are that he’s got a year to do this. Conference will find it easy to criticise the Government’s record on economic growth and jobs, but Labour is finding it harder to set out a credible alternative path to growth. After Clegg’s appeal to the centre ground, Miliband has got to convince those same centre voters that he is their man – not the captive of the unions.

Miliband will need to silence his critics and appease his brother’s supporters. Underneath the conference veneer, there’s likely to be some considerable chat about Ed’s performance so far. Without a clear vision of what he stands for, the ghost of brother David could linger over conference. The strategy should shift from watching the Coalition stumble, to Labour winning it from the front – some evidence of this might finally stop people from wishing David had won the leadership.

He needs to grab some attention. With two parties in government, Labour is finding it quite difficult even to secure airtime these days. Miliband should use conference to reassert his personal leadership and his vision. Expect lots of references to “ripping up the rule book”.

The big event

Ed Balls’ speech on Monday is the one to watch - his overriding objective is to outline how Labour would steer the country towards strong growth, while still tackling the deficit. He has something of an open goal before him: Vince Cable has admitted that the economy is in serious trouble, and the IMF has downgraded its UK growth forecasts yet again. The Lib Dems have already announced a focus on infrastructure investment, but the Government’s full Growth Review is yet to be unveiled. Balls needs to come out with a detailed and credible Plan B – not just another call to cut VAT.

The big announcement?

Despite backing down from announcing next week plans to cut the unions’ share of votes at the Labour Party conference from 50 to 40 per cent, some of the recommendations from ‘Refounding Labour’ (a review of the structure of the party) will go for decision at conference. The main changes include allowing ‘registered supporters’ who are not paid up Party members a say in future leadership elections. Their votes will sit in the same Electoral College as the unions, thus diluting their power…

Watch out for…

…lots of chat about the Shadow Cabinet reshuffle. Ed Miliband hasn’t indicated when this will happen, but speculation is bound to mount in Liverpool. Having secured the right to pick his own team, he may not have that much room for manoeuvre. Many including Ed Balls, Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper are untouchable. But Ed needs to inject some fresh talent, to address concerns about the Shadow Cabinet’s overall performance.

…discussion around The Purple Book, the just-published set of essays by Progress magazine. Contributers include former Cabinet Ministers Douglas Alexander, Liam Byrne, Caroline Flint, Tessa Jowell, Lord Mandelson and Alan Milburn - plus rising stars such as Rachel Reeves and Tristram Hunt. This has already been earmarked as a Blairite call for fresh policies, to counter the perceived leftward shift of Ed Miliband. It will be interesting to see whether it gets traction. We expect lots of debate at the Progress Rally on Sunday evening.

View from the grassroots

Miliband saw a surge in his popularity following #hacking, but the general consensus amongst the grassroots is that this hasn’t continued post #riots. 38% of the Labour List believe Miliband did an ‘Excellent’ or ‘Good’ job over August (down from 59% in July). Most believe his job was ‘Average’.

Liverpool fact of the week

Liverpool holds the Guinness World Record for being the capital of pop. More Liverpool artists have had a number one hit than any other town or city - 56 number 1s to date!