Fishburn Hedges

30.09.2011 | (1 comment)

What does Cameron need to do?

The Prime Minister heads to Manchester, with the economy uppermost on his mind. The euro crisis, continued job losses and weak growth are all raising questions about the Coalition’s aggressive deficit reduction plan. Cameron needs to reassure his party and the public that austerity is working, and that growth will return. By contrast, he will be less worried by Ed Miliband, whose performance this week will have cheered the Tory troops.

Cameron’s speech needs to offer hope and optimism, as the ‘leadership for a brighter future’ conference slogan suggests. He will no doubt present his Big Society as the right and relevant response to the riots. He will also be upbeat about his first foreign policy success, in Libya. 

Perhaps Cameron’s biggest task is to address the growing unease among the right of the party, who are getting particularly animated about the weak economy as well as Europe. Boundary changes and planning reform are other likely flashpoints – look out for fringe protests at High Speed 2.            

The big event

Osborne’s speech will be crucial, and effectively an early Autumn Statement. He needs to demonstrate that his plan for growth is on track, following the BAE job losses and a stream of other bad news. Unlike Labour’s policy-light conference, the Chancellor will want to fill his speech with as much policy detail as possible. He’ll keep the faithful happy with a reminder that the 50p top rate is temporary, but also needs to make clear that we are all genuinely in this together. So look out for new policies to tackle youth unemployment and boost enterprise. He’s also bound to have a bash at Ed Balls, his apology and his 5-point plan.

Watch out for…

….Boris, who will be using conference as the launchpad for his London Mayor re-election campaign. Expect the “Rally for Boris” on Monday evening to be packed. Although he’s made no explicit move on the party leadership, his unparalleled popularity among the party faithful must be more than a niggling concern for Cameron – and Osborne, who could be Johnson’s rival in a future leadership contest. The longer he’s Mayor of London, the more plausible is the idea of Boris as party leader. He is the favoured candidate of the right of the party, and unlike Osborne won’t be tarred by the coalition’s austerity drive. Toby Young has even placed a £15,000 bet on Boris as the next leader.

….A volume set to be published by five up-and-coming Tory backbenchers entitled After the Coalition is currently the talk of the party. Those concerned with party discipline may also be worried by a book being put together by David Davis, which features contributions from some 25 mainly rightwing Tory MPs, including 2010 incomers Richard Drax, Therese Coffey and Steve Baker.

View from the grassroots

Now that the Lib Dems are more openly distancing themselves from the Conservatives,  Manchester is likely to see a reciprocal pushback against the Lib Dems – not from Cameron, but from the grassroots. Many Tory backbenchers are unimpressed by the increasingly critical tone of their coalition partners. The fact that being in coalition also restricts the prospect of promotion for ambitious young Tories doubtlessly increases animosity.

Best and worst performers

Stars

George Osborne: The Chancellor has articulated the case for austerity with aplomb. 
Theresa May: Has handled her brief well and was a composed figure during the riots.
Eric Pickles: His drive to resume weekly bin collections will be popular with the electorate.

Flops 

Caroline Spelman:  Her only notable contribution has been a volte-face over forests. 
Ken Clarke: Is loathed by the right of the party and is due to retire from Cabinet next year.
Andrew Lansley: A further battle in the Lords over reforms could be too much for the Health Secretary 

Manchester fact of the week

Over 20 Nobel Prize winners have come from the city!

If you get bored

Take a stroll up trendy King Street – back to normal after the riots – or check out the impressive Whitworth Art Gallery.

Who to follow

John Redwood MP: Leading Tory thinker and darling of the right.

Harry Cole: News Editor of the Guido Fawkes Blog

Douglas Carswell MP: Famously led the campaign to eject Speaker Martin

Fraser Nelson: Articulate editor of The Spectator

Benedict Brogan:  Deputy Editor of The Telegraph, close to Osborne 

Paul Goodman : Former Tory MP for Wycombe, now a journalist

Tim Montgomerie: Editor of ConHome, influential Tory activist

FH at conference

Follow FH at this year’s Labour party conference on twitter - @PartyConference/@FishburnHedges

on 02.10.2011

Peter Copping :-
I would advise the splendid exhibition of Ford Maddox Brown at Manchester Gallery.. (just along from the Conference Centre) before the ghosts and shadows at the Whitworth.