Fishburn Hedges

23.08.2011

We might be four years away from a General Election, but inside the Westminster village, voting intention polls still matter. 

National polls from companies like ICM and Yougov still provide the best snapshot of public opinion.  Not only do they affect party morale and inform electoral strategy, the state of the polls helps to shape the media narrative.  If your party is faring badly before Conference season, you can guarantee a string of negative headlines and hype about the need for the party leader to make an impression with the voters.  With Conference season just a month away, it’s an opportune time to review the state of the polls and the implications for all three parties. 

I’ve taken a look at two contrasting polls from Yougov and ICM and come to one conclusion, the group of voters that should be of most interest to all the party leaders this autumn are the 2010 Lib Dems.  More on this later, but first a reminder of how the parties are faring.

The latest ICM poll (out today, August 23) has headline figures of: Con 37%, Lab 36%, Lib Dems 17%.

These figures make good reading for both coalition parties.  The Conservatives only achieved 37% in the GE, so to hold onto this level of support despite all that has happened in the last 16 months will be seen as quite a feat.

Labour will obviously be disappointed.  36% is significantly up on what they achieved in the GE, but factor in austerity, riots, hackgate and you might anticipate a far stronger showing. 

The Lib Dems will be delighted with a poll showing them at 17%.  It’s still 6% down on their performance in the GE, but plenty of pollsters have the party in single figures and this is their best showing for about a year. 

For balance, let’s now cast an eye over the last Yougov poll, which appeared in the Sunday Times.  Headline numbers here are: Con 35%, Lab 44%, Lib Dems 9%

A 2% difference for the Tories is within the margin of error, but the 8% differential between Labour and the Lib Dems is striking.  Believe ICM, a Lib Dem recovery is well under way and Labour are still less attractive than a pretty unpopular government.  Believe Yougov, Labour are in a very strong position and Clegg & co are staring into the abyss. 

I attribute the difference between Labour and Lib Dem numbers to the difference in ICM and Yougov’s methodology.  Without going into the details, ICM operate a ‘past vote weighting’ system that is much more favourable to the Lib Dems. 

-      If Jim tells ICM he voted Lib Dem in 2010, but isn’t sure how he will vote in the next election, the ICM formula predicts that around 50% of people like Jim will vote Lib Dem again in 2015 & boosts their score accordingly.

Yougov don’t use this model, hence the great disparity between their score of 9% for the Lib Dems and the 17% recorded by ICM.  Yougov are finding that virtually all of these 2010 Lib Dem voters are saying they will back Labour next time, pushing their score well into the 40s. 

The difference between a Labour vote share of 36% and 44% is huge, with repercussions for all three parties.  If Labour were to win 36% next time, we’re looking at another Hung Parliament.  By contrast, a 44% share of the vote would deliver Ed Miliband a comfortable Parliamentary majority.

The Lib Dems will desperately be hoping that ICM are right.  It makes sense for Clegg & co to target the 2010 Lib Dems, on the basis that if you have voted for a party once, you are more likely to do so again.  If they succeed in winning a majority of these voters back, the Lib Dem Parliamentary party should survive in healthy numbers.    

If the 2010 Lib Dems are still up for grabs, it will also be a source of encouragement for the Conservatives.  These voters are telling Yougov they will support Labour now, but their support for the opposition could well be ‘soft’.  Cameron needs more than 37% to win an outright majority next time & converting a good chunk of 2010 Lib Dems to the blue corner might well be his best hope.

Many politicians will never waiver from the line that the ‘only poll that matters is the one on election day’, but for those of us that know better, it’s worth keeping an eye on ICM and Yougov.  You can guarantee that Dave, Ed and Nick will be…

Posted by Andrew Lewin