Fishburn Hedges

04.10.2010

You’d expect Conservative politicians and activists to arrive in Birmingham with their tails firmly in the air, looking forward to being addressed by a Conservative Prime Minister for the first time in well over a decade. However, don’t assume all will be rosy, as many at all levels within the party continue to struggle with the disappointment of no outright win, and the inevitable tensions within the Coalition begin to surface.

Party bigwigs have always known that this conference would require preparing the way for unpopularity, given they’ll have to come back and deliver the Comprehensive Spending Review. Expect more of George Osborne insisting – and hoping – that “we’re all in this together”. And they’ll just be praying that any senior Lib Dems that appear at fringes make sure they don’t fall into any bear-traps. With the media sniffing hungrily for any signs of division, the Tories will be firmly focused on a solid, rather than triumphant, conference week.

While the Tories have been long-prepared for the pain over cuts, the summer has thrown unexpected problems their way. While  David Cameron would have hoped to approach the conference season refreshed, he’s had political headaches and an emotional roller-coaster as summer has crept towards autumn.

After William Hague’s excruciatingly public media battle with various bloggers over different elements of his personal life, and media chief Andy Coulson’s history at the NOTW in the spotlight once again, the party desperately needs Cameron’s firmly hand back on the tiller. But dealing with the birth of his daughter and the death of his father in less than a fortnight means Cameron may well take a little time to fully engage with the political programme, so colleagues and activists alike will be expecting strong performance at conference.

He’ll be expected to set out his strategy for economic recovery and social improvement once again, and given many put the lack of a majority to be the result of a weak election campaign, he needs to be pretty convincing about it. Advisers will frantically be working to put some meat on the bones of the Big Society argument, and show examples of areas of the country where it is working in practice.

On top of this, attack-dogs are getting stronger. Labour have opposed the Coalition pretty effectively over the summer, seizing on problems at the Department of Education, and exploiting the Coulson situation relentlessly. And all without a permanent leader. The old adage that  most of your enemies are behind you rings true for Cameron, and disgruntled backbenchers will no doubt make their criticisms of the Coalition plain at fringes and through the media. It’s probably too early days for them to gain much traction, but they’ll make Cameron’s team uneasy, because once the polls start to move following the impact of spending cuts, dissenting voices will suddenly sound much louder.

Expect AV, public sector reform and welfare reform to dominate fringe space. And don’t expect long detailed chats with anyone – this year’s jamboree is an opportunity to get to know new faces and form initial bonds, but in-depth discussion will need to be followed up in London.

Posted by Laura Wyld