Fishburn Hedges

24.02.2010

The next election looks likely to mark a genuine watershed in UK politics. If the polls are accurate, we’ll see either a change of administration for only the second time in the last 30 years or a return to the 1970s and a hung Parliament.

Much comment has concerned the make-up and likely direction of travel of a potential incoming Conservative Government. Fewer column inches have been devoted to the wider implications of the potential transition of power, and the questions that arise:

- What will it mean for Whitehall, for the conduct of business in both Houses,
and how will the spheres of influence alter?
- Will there be a hiatus in public policy?
- What do organisations wanting to influence a new Government need to watch out for, and what should they expect?

As Whitehall and the Opposition prepare for a potential change of administration, we have drawn on lessons from the last handover of government in 1997 to inform this guide for effective public affairs during a transition.

The campaign

Election campaigns generate more heat than light

During the long election campaign, politicians and advisers will only be focused on partisan advantage and they will not be receptive to attention-grabbing demands, unless the issues are genuinely top of their agenda. In Whitehall however, officials will be busy preparing alternative briefs for the next incoming Government whatever its political composition.

Use this time to track the campaigns, while remembering that raw politics will influence any announcements, and talk to officials sparingly if you can provide further insights on effective implementation.

“In practice, ministers who are seeking re-election virtually never come near their departments during a campaign…” Cabinet Office, ‘General Election Guidance 2005’

Parliament

Make friends before you need them

Get to know politicians on the way up. Relationships built early after the election will serve you well over the course of a whole Parliament and beyond, either as individuals rise up the Ministerial ladder, or as they bed down to be effective scrutinisers from the backbenches or in Committee.

This is especially important as the 2010 election looks certain to bring the biggest clearout of Parliament since the 1940s. If David Cameron wins a working majority of one, there’ll be 150 new Conservative MPs alone, and many of the Labour class of 1997 are standing down.

First impressions count: working with the new intake

Be sure however to target the new intake with care, even if there is a pre-existing relationship. New MPs will be inundated with requests to meet, even more so in 2010, given the change in composition of the House.

Be in touch only if your issues are high on the agenda, if the MP has an interest in your particular field or if there’s a genuine local link.

Remember that new MPs will be finding their feet in the Palace, and that any practical help that you can provide to assist them in navigating protocols will be appreciated in the early weeks and months.

The last time there was an election that resulted in no party winning a majority of seats was February 1974. However, in both 1978 (Labour under Callaghan) and 1996 (Conservatives under Major) the Government lost their overall majorities in Parliament owing to a combination of by-election losses and resignations. There has been no formal coalition in UK politics post 1945; the closest we have come is the Lab-Lib ‘pact’ in 1977/8.

What’s in the numbers? Pay attention to the Parliamentary arithmetic

The majority of an incoming Government will dictate both the Government’s strategy and tactics. With a comfortable majority (anything over 50), Cameron will be able to manage his backbenchers and focus on the difficult choices ahead of him, especially on the economy.

For organisations seeking to influence, a decent majority broadly means a greater focus on Whitehall and the Cabinet, with Parliament more straightforward to navigate.

Less than a 30-seat majority would see a Conservative Government more vulnerable to backbench pressure which will mean a greater focus on lobbying MPs.

With a hung Parliament, you can expect to spend a lot of time in SW1 as individual MPs exert real influence.

Don’t forget the new faces on the red benches

If the Conservatives win, Cameron faces being the first Conservative Prime Minister with a majority in the Commons who does not command the Lords. He will refresh the Conservative team in the Lords by appointing leading figures from politics, business, culture and the media to ensure that he can get his legislation passed.

These appointments will also widen the Ministerial recruitment pool, so expect to see experienced retiring Conservative MPs like Michael Howard fast-tracked to the red benches and back into Ministerial office, while Gordon Brown’s limited experiment of appointing non-partisan figures to public office (the so-called Goats) is likely to continue.

Labour is the biggest party in the House of Lords with 211 Peers. There are 189 Conservatives, 72 Liberal Democrats, 182 Crossbenchers and 51 Other (February 2010).

Government

It’s full steam ahead, but the pilots are inexperienced

It’s a truism that a new Government in 2010 will lack experience: the Conservatives have been out of power for 13 years. And yet, under the UK system, the business of Government starts straight away. Cameron is highly critical of Blair’s failure to ‘hit the ground running’ in 1997 and he has resolved to learn from New Labour’s tendency to confuse activity with delivery.

Effective influencing needs both to inform and assist an incoming Government, and to prepare and interpret early moves. If the Conservatives win, we will see an emergency Budget within 50 days as a Conservative Chancellor tries to preserve the UK’s debt rating and get public spending under control. On the other hand, all Governments take time to bed in and get to grips with the art of governing.

Don’t ‘over-read’ the early months of an incoming administration or base an organisational strategy around these. Manage the immediate but play the long game.

“TB [Tony Blair] said of his meeting with Butler [Cabinet Secretary] that it was obvious that the Civil Service had pretty much given up on the idea of the Tories coming back. There is so much to do the minute we get in, he said, and we’ll be knackered. I still didn’t want to focus on the day after.”

Alastair Campbell, Diaries, 23 April 1997

Whitehall

Work out where the true levers of power are

Most Governments look pretty similar in terms of the departmental structures, but the real seats of power vary and working out the influential levers is an important task.

In 1997, for example, the Treasury under Brown held sway over domestic policy, whilst No.10 operated almost as a Presidential office. In 2009, Peter Mandelson’s influence through BIS cannot be over-stated.

It goes without saying that officials provide some continuity but don’t just rely on them. There will be churn as well as stability and a number of senior civil servants will move on after the election. Some departments are organising now, in anticipation of changes of emphasis under a new administration.

While No 10 and No 11 will be as crucial under Cameron as under Blair – although the Conservative leadership is determined that the tensions are not replicated – new centres of power will emerge.

Get a fix on the new Whitehall landscape quickly

Commentators tend to advise incoming Governments against structural change in Whitehall, but this advice is rarely heeded. Some new departments fly, others bomb. John Prescott’s empire was short-lived, and DIUS came and went. DWP on the other hand was a department for its time, and established itself as a Whitehall powerhouse.

Cameron wants to keep Whitehall restructuring to a minimum but there will still be changes such as a refocused Department of Public Health with an independent NHS Board, while a new Department of Social Justice is under active consideration.

Politics, policy and personalities will all play a part in determining where the agenda gets delivered and where it flounders.

Don’t concentrate only on the big picture either. Underlying administrative reforms – such as less reported plans to publish details of all public spending over £25,000 online – will make a big difference to the business of government.

What’s in a name?

Since 1995 the ‘Department for Education’ has had three separate overhauls. In 1995 it became the Department for Education and Employment (DfEE). In 2001 Tony Blair’s government created the Department for Education and Skills (DfES). In 2007, Gordon Brown split education between pre and post 16, creating the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) and the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills (DIUS), before rolling DIUS into an extended Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) in 2009. It has been widely touted that the Conservatives plan to slim down BIS and recreate a specialist department that will once again focus on education as a standalone policy area.

Navigate the new spheres of influence

One of the biggest shifts in the environment for influencing will be amongst advisers and opinion formers. New players have emerged in the think tank world and will continue to do so. All have their uses whether for networking, informing policy or intelligence but before investing resources make sure their agenda can be tailored to your organisational needs.

Learn to differentiate between the sectional interests (those banging the drum for a tack to the left or right within a party, for example), those with an evidence-based approach and those that are blue-sky or even maverick players.

Above all

Context is king - it’s the economy, stupid

Even the best handled transition can’t buck external trends. Bill Clinton’s 1992 Presidential campaign mantra couldn’t be more appropriate for the UK eighteen years later. Any new administration will want to get off to as smooth a start as possible (and if the Conservatives do win, they will want to demonstrate change), but, unlike in 1997, the deficit and wider economic backdrop means there’s very limited room for manoeuvre.

Those organisations that understand this context, and demonstrate how they can help the new Government deliver more efficiently and help generate economic growth, will wield the most influence.