Fishburn Hedges

17.01.2012

I’ve worked on a variety of Conservative campaigns, including a couple of stints at CCHQ, over the last twelve years. Be it leadership campaigns, mayoral campaigns or by-elections, I’ve always believed that you know in your hearts of hearts from day one when you are going to lose. Even so, intellectually you have to convince yourself that there’s a chance of winning, otherwise you must be a fool to rise at 5am every day to battle on….

And so begins the daily soul-searching by campaign teams. Should they tweak the messaging, is it too late to develop the strategy, is the campaign on the ground on message? All of these questions were asked during the doomed Conservative election campaigns fought from Opposition. But ultimately, voters on the street gave us the same message as the official polling. Blair trumped Hague. Blair trumped Howard. (Blair didn’t even allow poor old IDS to get to the polls).

This is why I wonder why team Ed Miliband bothers setting its alarm clock. I rate Ed Miliband as an individual and as a politician – but I don’t think he has the leadership X factor. Labour has a strong frontbench, with rising stars like Chuka Umunna and Rachel Reeves destined for a future Labour Cabinet. Under an effective leader, or even just a more competent one, the Shadow Cabinet could instil real fear in the Coalition, and potentially shatter Cameron’s dreams of a majority. But I can’t see this happening under Ed Miliband.

My Labour friends insist that Labour’s boundary advantage and the fact that their overall polling is reasonably solid makes the prospect of Labour as the largest party a distinct possibility. I disagree. When voters are asked to rate the party leaders, Cameron trumps Miliband by a mile. And it’s no secret that in a celebrity-obsessed age, the cult of the individual is surely the one most important factor to sway decision making.

Ed Miliband just isn’t cutting it – I think he has another six months to turn things around and at least start matching Cameron’s leadership ratings. Based on my experience with the other team, though, he’ll need a bucketful (or ten) of good luck.

The big mistake for business, though, would be to ignore Labour until it looks certain to govern. Just remember that strong Shadow Cabinet – most of them will remain in place whoever leads the party. And governing parties remember those who respected them in Opposition. Some of the businesses with the best relationships with Cameron’s Conservatives, are those that maintained dialogue during the darker days of opposition. And if Ed does go, don’t write off a future position of influence – after all, Hague, IDS and Howard have only a little more time to spend with the family.