Fishburn Hedges

18.05.2011

Next month Fishburn Hedges will be holding at event on What’s next…for the Coalition: the new politics under pressure with twelve months having passed since Cameron and Clegg first came together in the Rose Garden at No.10 and with the prospects for the Coalition looking radically different than they did a year ago.

Against this backdrop, last week the Institute for Government hosted a seminar with Nick Boles MP, Lord Jim Wallace, Will Straw and Peter Riddell discussing the performance, lessons and challenges ahead for the Coalition following its one year mark. Below is a quick summary of the most salient points:  

• If the current array of Bills in Parliament are given Royal Assent this Government can claim to be one of the most radical yet
• The relationships formed amongst Conservatives and Liberal Democrats remain, post the AV vote, productive and workmanlike
• Special advisers have played a crucial role to date in liaising between ministers, party members and backbench MPs to drive through legislation
• For the Liberal Democrats, party identity is incredibly important - it will be critical going forward for them to clearly ‘badge’ policy successes as their own in order to demonstrate influence
• David Cameron’s position in the Conservative Party has been strengthened by the AV and local election results while the opposite is true for Nick Clegg
• In opposition Labour have made decent progress in attacking Nick Clegg but have been much less effective in undermining David Cameron or George Osborne
• Labour have failed to put any real pressure on the Coalition – to date, this has most effectively been done by external and representative groups
• The Coalition has run into most trouble with its policies when they are a) compromise policies such as AV b) new policies not in the Coalition agreement i.e. health reform or c) related to departmental spending cuts

While each of the speakers at the event clearly has a different political persuasion, I was struck with the underlying consensus and agreement that the Coalition would last the full five years or at least come very close. There have certainly been bumps in the road and there are no doubt some major challenges ahead (NHS and House of Lords Reform, the realisation of the deficit reduction plan, to name but a few) but a year in and the Coalition is by and large working effectively. Concurring with this, Andrew Adonis in his forward to the Institute for Government's ‘One Year On’ report notes that privately senior civil servants have been very positive about the internally functioning of the Coalition. 

It is externally, however, and when you look at the attitude of the general public that the story is somewhat different. A Populus survey conducted in April 2011 found that 63% people thought that if no party achieved an overall majority it would be a bad thing, while many felt that the Coalition has led to weaker Government which is more indecisive and less responsive to the public.

These contrasting views make it difficult to judge the overall strength and effectiveness of the Coalition during its first year in office. Parliament has certainly adapted to Coalition politics, yet there is intense external pressure and disquiet. While the last few weeks have certainly seen heightened internal tensions as well, along with a number of ministerial disputes, both Cameron and Clegg have made their commitment to the Coalition and its programme for Government clear. The question in my mind is not therefore will the Coalition survive, but can it win over the public and ever gain its trust?

Posted by Holly Rouse