Fishburn Hedges

14.09.2011

The political life of Nick Clegg has been remarkable. A man who two years ago was barely recognised by the public has seen his reputation reach the frenzied heights of Cleggmania during the General Election campaign, only to drop to the depths of embarrassing defeat in the local elections earlier this year. As Parliament reconvenes after the summer break, a further twist could be slowly emerging. There is a tangible confidence amongst Clegg and his aides who feel the tide is, slowly but surely, turning as the political landscape shifts to better suit their agenda. The riots on the streets of London, the phone hacking scandal and the Vickers report on banking regulation are all issues in which Clegg feels he can emphasise the Liberal Democrat influence in government. As the parliamentary year begins in the life of this Coalition government, are we about to witness yet another twist in the political life of Nick Clegg?

The finger-prints of team Clegg have been seen on countless stories and articles in the last month, as the Deputy Prime Minister has attempted to define the boundaries within the Coalition early on in the parliamentary cycle. A recent  Observer article counted three victories which Clegg claims to have won over Education Secretary Michael Gove about the role and profit-making powers of free schools and academies. In a speech made last week, Clegg spoke of the ‘confusion’ around the Coalition’s education policy emphasising the role of local authorities in the expansion of the academy programme and free schools. In fact, nobody was confused. Clegg is attempting a slight, but critical, realignment of education policy in an attempt to reign in the impatient Education Secretary. The Deputy Prime Minister has learnt the lessons of the NHS bill fiasco and is now flexing Lib Dem muscle in policy-making decisions earlier on.

In more subtle moves, certain commentators close to Clegg have recently written pieces emphasising frustrations Lib Dem sources are having with Cameron’s lack of focus on policy. John Kampfner, a journalist who regularly speaks to Clegg, revealed that the Lib Dem leader is slowly beginning to believe that Cameron is a master tactician but a leader ‘devoid of strategy’. The well-connected Tim Montgomerie has written of Clegg advisers’ frustrations at Cameron’s ‘two-week window from when a big idea enters (his) head to the moment he has moved on to another subject. If they can prevent him from instituting policy change during that period they are confident they have prevented it altogether.’ The idea that Cameron mesmerised the hapless Clegg into a miserable marriage during a press conference in the Downing Street Rose Garden is slowly being rubbished. The Lib Dem leader is on the move.

Indeed, whilst many felt the defeat of AV in the referendum earlier this year represented the death knell for Clegg and his party, the loss has had a liberating effect on the leader. It has now given Clegg the room to manoeuvre and criticise the government with more vigour, with the sense that his party has already lost out on one of their most treasured political goals and therefore deserve more out of the Coalition. If Clegg had won, whilst he would have won admirers in his party in the short term, the Conservative clamour for Clegg’s influence to be limited would be much more significant. Clegg’s sense of loss in the aftermath of the referendum defeat has emboldened him, and like any relationship, Clegg feels the Conservatives now owe him one.

The shifting policy landscape also offers a glimpse of light for the Lib Dems. If over the last political year focused on drastic cuts in public spending and dealing with the country’s debt, this year begins with a slightly different complexion. The riots have placed more importance on social policy, with a special emphasis placed on young people, and hackgate renews a focus on the immorality of concentrations of power in our society. On both issues, the Lib Dem leader has an opportunity. Clegg has visited Tottenham repeatedly in the aftermath of the riots and has begun to show some ownership on issues around social deprivation. His insistence that the next round of free schools are focused in deprived areas is a start, but there is great room for further strides. Whilst Cameron is hamstrung by a naturally authoritarian party with many dismissing the riots as an act of an ‘underclass’, Clegg can take the lead, with certain sensible Tory elements, in reviewing the reasons that there is a disillusioned group that feel they have nothing to lose and have no respect for their community. Such an initiative would attract many Lib Dems who have found life in the Coalition too much. During the phone hacking scandal, the Lib Dems were the only party who could claim not to have flirted abhorrently with the Murdoch empire over the last two decades. As endless pictures of Cameron in compromising positions with senior News International Executives emerge, Clegg can once again be a voice of reason in government. He has made encouraging speeches – he must now act decisively.

There is no better opportunity for Clegg than on the issue that defines our times. Vince Cable has repeated the Lib Dem battle-cry demanding further regulation of the banks over the summer and views the Vickers report as a personally defining moment in his long political career. Like proposals for a mansion tax, that also offers an olive branch to the disillusioned left of the party, regulating the banks will be popular amongst the public who dislike the Conservative’s somewhat disingenuous slogan – ‘we’re all in this together’. Nick Clegg, by making the first leader’s speech of party conference season, has the opportunity to set the Lib Dem fairness agenda at the heart of the political debate over the frenetic conference season. Sensible regulation of the banks, a renewed focus on social deprivation and exclusion, and the reform of our nation’s most powerful institutions should be at the heart of the Lib Dem vision in government.

In 2015, the situation could be very different. Just imagine. A battle-worn David Cameron is leading a divided Conservative party – with Tories on the left and the right both frustrated with their leader’s lack of subservience. The UK economy has recovered to the point that the election campaign is focused on public service delivery, social mobility and community cohesion, rather than cuts and debt. University applications remain at a high-level. Ed Miliband has failed to reform a party bereft of ideas, split by never-ending battles fought in the Blair and Brown years and yet to make an impact on the public’s consciousness. Conversely, Nick Clegg is respected as a leader who held his nerve in the dark months of 2010, helping to bring the public debt down. He was the man who led the way in stifling Tory elitism, making sure that public service reform was focused on those that need it. Clegg is viewed as a figure-head of reforms to our media and banking system, ensuring transparency and accountability.

The predictions of the demise of the Liberal Democrats may well have been premature. The Lib Dems could still do better than we expect at the next election. I admit, today, this vision looks rather outlandish. But as we all know, anything can happen in politics.

Posted by Jake Richards