Fishburn Hedges

23.03.2011

The Coalition’s fortunes are heavily dependent on the economy returning to healthy growth, well before the 2015 general election. That is George Osborne’s mission, and his Budget today was intended to move the agenda from cuts to growth.

The defining question of this Parliament is: will Osborne’s plan work? He says yes, Ed Miliband says no. Whoever is right stands the best chance of winning in 2015.

Compared to last November’s forecasts, the Chancellor now faces weaker growth this year, plus higher inflation and unemployment. But the economy is still set to rebound from next year onwards.

The headline budget deficit is now forecast to be slightly lower this year, but £25 billion higher over the next three years. But the structural deficit remains on track to be eliminated by 2014.