Fishburn Hedges

02.10.2008

"Let sunshine win the day!" was the rallying call from David Cameron in his 2006 speech to the Conservative Conference, his first as Leader, contrasting an optimistic style with Brown's sometimes dour demeanour. Two years on, and he is basking in the warmth of consistently healthy - sometimes dazzling - opinion poll leads, and the steadfast loyalty of a Party sensing power. But while many Conservative activists have a spring in their steps, Cameron is acutely aware that those who don't take care in the sun get burnt.

Back on Saturday morning

He set off for Birmingham  facing three key challenges. First, to avoid any sense of complacency or triumphalism. Second, the Opposition had to put policy flesh on the bones of their repositioning, and accept scrutiny of the detail. Finally, they had to go further in sealing the deal with the voters. This conference was about more than holding his nerve and avoiding mistakes - Cameron needed to show that, contrary to Brown's powerful attack at Labour conference, the country should welcome a 'novice' to the helm.

Global, not local

Sunshine may be Cameron's preferred metaphor, but the global economic situation meant that he had to be prepared to adapt to thunder clouds as well. Events took him out of the spotlight, especially with the initial failure of the Paulson deal to clear the House of Representatives. Cameron's team responded effectively - not trying to claw back the agenda, but instead turning it to their advantage. Cameron behaved like a statesman, offering bi-partisanship in an emergency statement to conference on Tuesday morning, and promising to support the Government's financial rescue package through the Commons.

Character beats experience, judgement betters age?

Cameron had a tricky balancing act to pull off in his speech. The seriousness of the global situation made gratuitous attacks on Gordon Brown risky and many MPs and advisers privately feared that Cameron's hands were tied when it came to scoring hits from the conference floor.

To his credit. Cameron demonstrated again that he can rise to the occasion when making a difficult speech. Determined to look Prime Ministerial, he eschewed his former relaxed, notes-free style and instead spoke from a podium. The Shadow Cabinet lined up behind him, all with a grave expression to match the times.

On the whole, Cameron got it right. He came up with a clever response to Brown's claim that now is "no time for a novice", calling for change rather than more of the same, and asserting that his character and judgement would benefit Britain far more than Brown's experience.

He threw some red meat to the hall, pointing out that Margaret Thatcher's character and judgement beat Jim Callaghan's experience, and attacking a culture of political correctness. Cameron clearly has more confidence in promoting centre right ideology, and those who feel he is simply in the mould of New Labour will see a subtle shift.

It was a speech that tried to appeal to both head and heart - he acknowledged he needed to show he was up to the job, but emphasised that he felt the nation's pain.

Substance to go with style?

Economics was everything at this conference. The major policy event was the release of 'Reconstruction: Plan for a Strong Economy' on Monday. Its key proposals included the creation of an Office of Budget Responsibility - neatly named to end an 'age of irresponsibility' - giving the Bank of England stronger regulatory powers, and guaranteeing savings deposits up to £50,000.

Tax was treated adeptly. The party swallowed Cameron's stern warning that cuts would only happen when it was fiscally sensible, sweetened with small cuts in corporation tax and the creation of an Office of Tax Simplification. And George Osborne's two-year freeze on council tax was a crowd-pleaser - even if the small-print revealed it was actually a deal a Tory government would hope to strike with councils.

Stirring up a fuss on transport and the environment was the controversial plan to build new high-speed rail lines, but axe a third runway for Heathrow - making headlines outside the conference, and ruffling feathers amongst the more business-minded inside. Eric Pickles was emphasising localism, with a promise for weekly bin collections and a rejection of bin taxes.

Elsewhere, some classic Cameroon  ideas. Every policy release listed a problem (thanks to Labour) and a 'post-bureaucratic solution' (thanks to the Conservatives). Andrew Lansley spoke of choice for patients, while Alan Duncan lambasted a red-tape regime. David Willets proposed re-focussing Train to Gain budgets, and Michael Gove wants to make schools independent of central control. Welfare reform remains a priority, with familiar talk of ending dependency - and the broken society, obviously, still needs fixing too.

What's next?

In short, the political weather has changed over the conference season, principally because of external events. It remains to be seen if that change will prove decisive. The Conservatives remain in a strong position in the polls, and the suspicion is that voter sentiment has turned inexorably against Labour. One of the key tests of the next few months is whose analysis of the financial turmoil provides correct - will the Prime Minister's experience save the day, or will the difficulties irrevocably tarnish his economic record? In any case, with an election potentially as far off as May 2010, the Conservatives know there's a lot of hard work ahead.

However, the enthusiastic presence of business at the conference, the professionalism and unity of Party workers and the Shadow Cabinet, and the assured demeanour of Cameron himself suggests that while it isn't time to measure curtains for Downing Street , he could treat himself to a catalogue.